Assumptions — everything below re-solves the model
Sliders set values; switches flip model mechanics. Pick a scenario preset or drag anything to go custom.
Base
Q weights 18/22/25/35 vs even 25s
Retention — cohort segmented
Blended GRR: · Net revenue retention: (blended GRR + expansion). The risk haircut models health-score-flagged renewals as extra churn.
Capacity-driven model — what the sales org can carry
Off = every rep at full quota
Pipeline-driven model — what the funnel can deliver
Triangulation — reconcile the two models
Overrides the weight slider
Bookings → revenue timing (ASC 606)
Months from booking to platform provisioning (CRM / contact-center integration)
New deals recognized for 1.5 mo in the booking quarter
Haircut base revenue for in-quarter churn
Professional services — demand side
Front-loaded monthly burn vs even spread
Professional services — supply-side validation
Efficiency sanity checks
Net new ARR — triangulated
Two independent sourcing models for the same number. When they disagree, the gap is the forecast risk.
Capacity-driven
Pipeline-driven
Triangulated
ARR bridge — quarterly cohort walk
Each quarter's churn, expansion, and renewal risk apply to that quarter's live base — retention compounds instead of being applied once to the January number.
| Quarter | Starting | + Expansion | − Churn | − Risk | + New logos | = Ending |
|---|
Subscription bookings → revenue timing
Bookings are sold ARR; revenue starts only after the commencement lag (integration + provisioning) and is recognized ratably over the contract term. Raise the lag and near-term revenue falls while bookings stay fixed.
Quarterly bookings (new ARR sold)
Quarterly subscription revenue recognized
| Quarter | Bookings ($M) | Carryover rev ($M) | New-bookings rev ($M) | Sub revenue ($M) |
|---|
Professional services — demand vs supply
Demand: services attach to subscription bookings and burn over the delivery period. Supply: billable headcount × utilization × rate. If demand outruns supply, the plan needs hiring or subcontracting.
Services bookings
Services revenue
Services gross profit
Services revenue by funding source ($M)
Backlog balance walk ($M)
| Qtr | Beginning | + Bookings | − Revenue | = Ending |
|---|
Supply-side validation
| Revenue line | Revenue ($M) | Gross margin | Gross profit ($M) |
|---|
Consolidated GAAP revenue
Subscription revenue recognized ratably plus services revenue burned from backlog — this is the top line that flows to the income statement. Every slider above moves these bars.
Quarterly GAAP revenue ($M)
| Quarter | Subscription ($M) | Services ($M) | Total GAAP ($M) | QoQ growth |
|---|
Efficiency sanity checks
A forecast that breaks enterprise efficiency norms is a forecast that won't survive diligence. Green = within norms.
Rule of 40
Magic Number
CAC payback
How to read this model
Capacity says what the org can sell; pipeline says what the funnel will deliver — triangulate, then take the lower number into the board plan. The ARR bridge walks quarterly: each quarter's churn, expansion, and risk apply to that quarter's live base, and new logos start compounding the quarter after they're booked — expansion only, since in-term contracts can't churn. One point of gross retention is worth more than one point of attainment at this scale. Bookings are a sales metric; revenue is an accounting outcome that starts only after the commencement lag and spreads over the contract term. Services demand must fit inside billable supply. And no plan survives diligence if it breaks the Rule of 40, the magic number, or CAC payback — the checks above turn red when it does. Illustrative example only — not Medallia actuals, not financial advice.